Israelis vote in Knesset race where no bloc holds a clear path to power

Benjamin Netanyahu and the opposition bloc face off in Israel's first Knesset election since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. Polling stations opened at 7:00 a.m. on Tuesday morning, allowing eligible voters to cast ballots for the country's next parliament. The race pits the sitting prime minister's coalition against a group of parties seeking to replace his government after three years of war.

Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party currently leads the opposition bloc in recent surveys. According to a final poll released by Channel 12 on Friday, Yashar is projected to win 22 seats. This number places the party ahead of Netanyahu's Likud, which is projected to receive 19 seats. Likud currently holds 32 seats in the outgoing Knesset. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad party is projected to win 14 seats.

The central issues for voters include the Israel Defense Forces manpower crisis and contentious legislation regarding the conscription of haredi ultra-Orthodox men. Many Israelis are also calling for a state commission of inquiry into the government's failures surrounding the October 7 attacks. Traditional economic and social issues have moved to the background as the security outlook has shifted.

Neither bloc appears able to secure the 61 seats required for a majority. The Channel 12 poll projects Netanyahu's bloc at 50 seats and the opposition bloc at 56 seats. The Arab parties are projected to win a combined 16 seats. Most opposition leaders have pledged not to form a government with the Arab parties, arguing that such a coalition would not be viable following the attacks.

The final outcome depends heavily on voter turnout. The electoral threshold is set at 3.25% of valid votes. Prof. Alex Weinreb of the Taub Center estimates that at a 70% turnout rate, similar to the 2022 election, a party would need 165,635 votes to cross that threshold. The required vote count rises as turnout increases, making it harder for smaller parties to enter the Knesset.

Several small parties are fighting to clear the threshold, including Ofer Winter's People of Israel party and Yoaz Hendel's the Reservists-Economics party. Whether these parties enter the Knesset could affect the ability of both major blocs to form a coalition. Even a slight shift in voter support could determine whether these parties represent their supporters or leave them without representation.

Police have prepared for potential public order disruptions, particularly in the hours following the release of exit polls. Approximately 20,000 police officers, Border Police officers, and volunteers will be deployed nationwide on Tuesday. Forces will be stationed at thousands of polling stations to safeguard the integrity of the elections and ensure the democratic process is conducted in accordance with the law.

Voting at Israeli diplomatic missions abroad concluded on October 16. Voting at some military bases began last week. Exit polls are expected at 10:00 p.m. on Tuesday, offering preliminary projections. Official results will be finalized in the coming days after the vote count is completed.