Israelis Cast Ballots in First Election Since 2023 War

Seven million three hundred thousand eligible voters in Israel go to the polls on Tuesday to select the next Knesset. This is the first national election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war in Gaza. The outcome will determine which political bloc leads a government facing ongoing regional conflicts and internal division.

Two primary coalitions are competing for power. The governing bloc centers on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and includes far-right and ultra-Orthodox groups such as United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudi, and Religious Zionism-Zehut. The opposition alliance unites four Jewish-led parties: Yashar, the Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Together alliance. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s party has joined the opposition under the leadership of Yair Lapid.

Recent surveys indicate neither side will achieve the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat parliament. A poll by public broadcaster KAN projected 52 seats for the opposition and 50 for Netanyahu’s camp. The remaining seats are expected to go to unaffiliated parties, including the Arab-majority lists Ra’am and the Joint List. Both major blocs have stated they will not currently partner with Arab-led parties, increasing the likelihood of a minority government or a repeat election.

Voters are focused on security failures prior to the 2023 attacks and the military exemption status of the ultra-Orthodox community. Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, noted that secular and liberal opposition factions view this vote as the last chance to save Israeli democracy. International criticism has also mounted, with several allies sanctioning West Bank settlements and condemning military operations in Gaza and Lebanon.

The election carries personal risk for Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. He faces corruption charges dating to 2019 and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes. A loss could weaken his position in ongoing legal proceedings. Meanwhile, the Central Elections Committee initially barred the Joint List and Ra’am from running, but the Supreme Court reversed that decision last month. The court did remove Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh from the race over an article describing the October 7 attacks as an important historical event.

Netanyahu has framed the election as a choice between his coalition and a potential alliance with Arab parties. Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Knesset member Ayman Odeh, suggested this strategy could keep Netanyahu in office as a caretaker prime minister if no bloc secures a clear majority. Roughly three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem will not vote in this election, despite the government controlling their borders and legal status.