Somalia Residents Say US Airstrikes Are Pushing Civilians Toward Rising Floodwaters

Residents of southern Somalia's Jilib say repeated airstrikes are forcing families toward the banks of the swollen River Juba just as a strengthening El Niño threatens severe flooding. Cayni Ali, a 27-year-old mother of six, said the water had already reached her waist at her home, five metres from the river. "The drones come all the time," she said, adding that animals and civilians are being killed.

Jilib is a stronghold of al-Shabaab, the Islamist militant group that controls 30% of Somalia. Testimony from people inside the area offers a rare look at a place closed off from the outside world. Residents describe heavy civilian casualties, and some said bodies lay in the streets. Asho Omar, from the nearby village of Malenda, spoke of "constant" strikes that made movement difficult.

The campaign is coordinated by the United States in east Africa and operates in a legally ambiguous space with little accountability for harm to Somali civilians. The United States Africa Command, known as Africom, declined to share operational details of what appears to be an accelerating effort. One source monitoring the Juba floodplain alleged that El Niño is being exploited "as a weapon of war to push the population into flood-prone areas." Many of those affected are women and children, raising fears of large-scale deaths in the coming months.

Africom rejected the claim. A spokesperson said it does not target civilians, conduct operations to displace them, or use weather or flooding as a method of warfare, and that it targets lawful military objectives and takes feasible steps to limit civilian harm. Analysts nonetheless raised ethical questions. Jethro Norman of the Danish Institute for International Studies said that using humanitarian remote sensing to inflict casualties, rather than reduce harm, would be "a reversal of process."

The flood risk is real. When El Niño last hit Somalia in 2023, it caused the worst floods in a century and displaced more than 1.2 million people. UN agencies call the Juba River basin an area of "particular concern," and the International Committee of the Red Cross expects "severe flooding." Arbey Famu, 70, from Ahmed Yare, said her maize and sorghum crops are already underwater.

Preparation is thin. Ali Adan Ali, commissioner for displaced people in Jubaland, identified 327 flood-prone regions, but only half had received El Niño warnings by October. He is especially worried about a shortage of boats, which could leave thousands on the east side of the river unable to reach help in Kismayo. During the last El Niño, he said, 19,000 people were stranded for a week without food. Somalia's aid budget has fallen from $2.2bn in 2023 to about $300,000, and al-Shabaab has not responded to his queries about readiness.

Accounts of the strikes differ sharply from official figures. Farhan Ahmed, who fled Jilib last month, said strikes came every day and one flattened five homes in his neighbourhood. US records confirm one airstrike in Jilib in August and six last month, and 11 strikes in total since the start of August. The US said it publicises all strikes conducted under its authority and keeps no undisclosed count. David Sterman of the New America thinktank noted that the possibility of covert strikes looms when attribution is unclear. The ICRC has treated 205 weapon-related injury patients in Kismayo this year, a 43% rise on last year.

Hunger compounds the danger. Omar's family of 13 lives on one small fish a day, and Habiba Ali, 55, said her family shares a single daily meal of maize. Shukri Ahmed, president of Galbeed refugee camp, estimated that 6,000 people may have died in Kismayo's displacement sites since USAID was shut last year. Zakaria Mohammed, head nurse at the ICRC-supported hospital, said child malnutrition cases have risen 40% this year.

Xaawo Nacdoor fled Jamame at night after al-Shabaab blocked her from seeking treatment, carrying her 14-month-old daughter Faadumo for three days. The child weighed 4.1kg on arrival and 4.4kg three days later, and she survived. Most patients say they will never return home, citing no school, healthcare or food under al-Shabaab.