Could 70,000 Israelis Returning From Abroad Tip a Close Election?

An estimated 70,000 Israelis who live abroad have returned to Israel, or are expected to arrive, ahead of Tuesday's Knesset elections. If the contest between the political blocs proves close, their votes could influence the outcome. No precise figures exist, and the number remains an estimate.

To gauge the possible impact, it helps to look at what a Knesset seat requires. In the 2022 elections, roughly 36,000 votes were needed to win one seat. With population growth and higher turnout expected, the threshold this time could climb to about 38,000 to 39,000 votes.

Which parties the arriving Israelis will back is hard to say. Some estimates suggest many will vote for the change bloc, but there is no reliable measure of their political preferences. Even if 60% of them supported that bloc, the gain would amount to at most one to one-and-a-half seats. Only the election results will show whether voters from abroad tipped the balance.

The travel is also showing up in hotel figures. Most of those arriving are combining family visits and vacations with Election Day, and many are staying with relatives, friends, or in vacant apartments they own in Israel. Some, however, have booked hotel rooms.

Africa Israel Hotels reported an increase of about 23% in occupancy during election week. The comparison is with October of last year, when the security situation was more complicated, but the rise still appears significant. Alex Eliyahu, the chain's marketing director, said more Israelis are choosing to pair "exercising their democratic right with a short vacation."

Fattal Hotels also reported higher occupancy, particularly in central Israel. Maya Shalev, its vice president of marketing and sales, said bookings are up compared with October of last year, "apparently due to the elections." The chain is offering discounts of up to 30%, plus an extra 10% for members of its "Fattal and Friends" club, from October 25 to 29. She added that bookings from abroad for these dates may indicate Israelis are coming to vote.

Some of those who made the trip were among the tens of thousands at the October Council rally at Hostages Square in Tel Aviv on Saturday night. Judy, who has lived in the US for more than 50 years, said she came from Miami to vote and will fly back in early November. "Many Israelis living in Miami and Los Angeles tend to vote for the Right. I'm different, and I'm not alone," she said. Ofer, who came from New York, said his family flew in specifically to vote and will return the day after the elections. Nurit, from the South Sharon area, attended with her son-in-law and grandson, who arrived from Canada. Her grandson, who is 18, is voting for the first time. Zehava, who flew in from New York, said she plans to vote for Likud and planned her visit in advance.

Not everyone who hoped to come could do so. Some Israelis were stranded abroad after flydubai canceled flights following an attempted terrorist attack. One young man said the cancellation pushed up flight prices to the Far East.

Others who live in Israel will be overseas on Election Day, though their number appears lower than that of arrivals from abroad. Racheli, from Ramat Gan, booked a vacation in Vietnam with her husband almost a year ago, before they knew the elections would fall in October. "This will be the first time I don't vote. It breaks my heart," she said, adding that it is a shame Israelis traveling abroad cannot vote on Election Day.